San Antonio, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS64 KEWX 290021
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
721 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Key Messages:

- Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening over the Hill
  Country and northern I-35 Corridor.

- Locally heavy rainfall over already saturated soils could lead to
  additional flash flooding.

The latest GOES-19 water vapor regional imagery shows a shortwave
over northwest Texas early this afternoon. This 500mb shortwave will
slide further south and east through the evening hours, and likely
result in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. How far
south and east these storms get is the greatest question. With
recent rounds of convection overachieving in recent days, have to
believe that we`ll probably see more activity than the latest CAMs
are letting on. Have kept PoPs in the high chance category to
account for the continued low to medium confidence in storm
coverage, but the timing confidence remain a bit higher. Any storms
that form should start out over the SJT CWA between now and 4pm,
then slide south and east with time through late evening. Large
hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two are possible, but
perhaps the biggest threat may actually be locally heavy rainfall
which could lead to additional flash flooding given already
saturated soils from Monday`s storms. Any storms that move through
should be out of the north and eastern portions of south central
Texas by midnight, but some lingering showers and storms are
possible over the Coastal Plains after midnight and perhaps through
as late as 3am.

Thursday`s setup is highly dependent on what occurs tonight. If
storms linger longer through the night, most of Thursday may turn
out dry, but the atmosphere would have more time to recover if
storms are out of the region before sunrise. For now, have leaned
more towards the later. Afternoon temperatures will remain close to
average with highs in the upper 80s to lower and middle 90s. The
areas of greatest concern for afternoon re-development would be over
the Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country on Thursday. Most hi-
res guidance has storms falling apart before reaching our area
tomorrow afternoon and evening, but only time will tell.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Key Message:

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms into next week.

A surface front should be moving across or almost out South Central
Texas Friday morning, eventually stalling south of the area. There
could be a few showers or thunderstorms along or behind this feature
Friday, but any precipitation looks to be relatively isolated.
Mostly cloudy skies are expected Friday afternoon with cooler
temperatures in the 80s for the majority of the area except over
portions of the Rio Grande Plains which will remain in the 90s.

Surface high pressure moves across eastern Texas Friday night into
Saturday under weak upper level ridging. Increased mid-level
moisture from a not yet formed tropical system in the eastern
Pacific will keep low rain chances (20-30 percent) in the forecast
Saturday, mainly for the western half of the CWA. Rain chances shift
further south the latter half of the weekend. Granted, a trough
moving over the Baja Peninsula will play a role in how far north the
remnants of this future tropical system make it, so these weekend
precipitation chances may shift in future updates.

Large-scale troughing will move over the western US with periods of
unsettled weather possible through mid-week. At this time, any rain
chances Monday through Wednesday remain low with a gradual warming
trend seen as moderate southerly flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

A severe storm just moved through ABIA to delay this discussion, but
we should see mostly quiet conditions for the rest of the TAF
periods. This is a assuming the other isolated severe cell over San
Saba County doesn`t sneak into the ABIA vcnty before weakening.
Another storm complex is expected Thursday night, but is forecast to
be outside the TAF windwows for 30 hours. A generic MVFR sky is
forecast for around 08Z over I-35 and around 11Z over DRT. A return
to VFR skies should occur by around noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  92  71  86 /  30  20  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  91  72  85 /  30  30  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  93  72  87 /  20  20  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            67  90  68  83 /  30  20  40  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  96  75  91 /  20   0  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  89  69  81 /  40  20  40  20
Hondo Muni Airport             70  92  73  87 /  20  10  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  93  71  86 /  30  30  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  91  73  86 /  30  30  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  93  74  88 /  20  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           73  94  74  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...27
Aviation...18